Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 28.718203 30.711456 32.863336 35.375458 38.249036 41.460078 45.358057
2025-12-14 24.809479 27.302985 30.141511 33.660908 37.980126 43.212191 50.205259
2025-12-21 23.282725 26.119925 29.469039 33.804062 39.412842 46.657788 57.173326
2025-12-28 22.237038 25.334849 29.101447 34.156897 41.007792 50.396380 65.173664
2026-01-04 20.893362 24.043788 27.949583 33.321480 40.839184 51.591725 69.598786
2026-01-11 20.367056 23.715341 27.963215 33.981037 42.747075 55.998770 80.161278
2026-01-18 19.786128 23.262684 27.758528 34.289667 44.142698 59.807803 90.833181
2026-01-25 18.933705 22.398564 26.934916 33.634325 43.981488 61.017087 96.863898
2026-02-01 18.159705 21.594965 26.139763 32.946973 43.678006 61.905726 102.495629
2026-02-08 17.184075 20.478820 24.856659 31.452636 41.941173 59.998124 101.232876
2026-02-15 17.021213 20.447321 25.073878 32.201476 43.917837 65.182285 119.057860
2026-02-22 16.894836 20.454558 25.338735 33.033128 46.120815 71.259118 143.184551
2026-03-01 16.310557 19.882237 24.851986 32.839167 46.857425 75.283298 167.727740
2026-03-08 15.402112 18.828298 23.623684 31.396165 45.223181 73.944592 173.245752
2026-03-15 15.003686 18.466173 23.381176 31.513000 46.470612 79.510367 215.021166
2026-03-22 14.691331 18.206709 23.269217 31.825924 48.135899 86.731938 284.569698
2026-03-29 14.148121 17.588356 22.575294 31.087762 47.587798 87.972162 322.565550
2026-04-05 13.960162 17.475272 22.645908 31.670533 49.852839 98.116620 501.612194
2026-04-12 13.714790 17.264515 22.548695 31.942849 51.501987 107.359785 841.694815
2026-04-19 13.302111 16.788339 22.006753 31.364331 51.155189 109.768477 1155.615547
2026-04-26 12.909145 16.327887 21.469229 30.756427 50.664924 111.549276 1652.842849
2026-05-03 12.385923 15.657340 20.571223 29.430792 48.356509 105.752536 1418.977195
2026-05-10 12.304458 15.647758 20.734767 30.095785 50.871344 120.144898 21565.389324